XTO Energy Inc. is a large, mature Bakken operator with 1,338 total wells, 913 active, and 952 producing as of the dossier date. Its near-term regulatory activity is concentrated in Dunn and McKenzie counties, where 3 pending spacing unit cases request a combined 18 wells across multiple Bakken pools. The operator's historical win rate sits at 60%, and its average case probability of 0.582 reflects a mixed-confidence docket — one high-conviction case (case 33266 at 93.9%) anchors the pipeline, while the largest well-count request (case 33188, 15 wells) carries a low 23.4% progression probability. Three signed orders in the past three months — covering Lost Bridge Field, Haystack Butte commingling, and a Lost Bridge spacing reconfiguration — confirm active regulatory engagement in Dunn County.
XTO has 3 pending spacing unit cases scheduled across two hearing dates. Case 33188 (Bear Creek-Bakken Pool, Corral Creek-Bakken Pool, Dunn County) was heard on 2026-09-24 — the dossier date — covering 2,560 acres and requesting 15 wells; its progression probability is 23.4%, the lowest in the docket. Cases 33266 and 33267 are both set for 2026-10-22. Case 33266 (Eagle Nest-Bakken Pool, Corral Creek-Bakken Pool, Dunn County) covers 2,560 acres, requests 1 well, and carries a 93.9% progression probability — the only case flagged as high-probability. Case 33267 (Siverston-Bakken Pool, McKenzie County) covers 3,840 acres, requests 2 wells, and sits at 57.2%. A fourth location in the bundle, case 33034 (Haystack Butte-Bakken Pool, Lost Bridge-Bakken Pool, Dunn County, 3,840 acres, 2 requested wells, 81.4% probability), is listed as pending but does not appear in the confirmed pending-cases list and had a hearing date of 2026-07-30; its current status warrants verification. All pending cases are XTO's own applications. Active counties are Dunn and McKenzie.
XTO carries 1,338 total wells in North Dakota, of which 913 are active and 107 are plugged. The plugged count is modest relative to the total, consistent with a producing-focused asset base and limited near-term abandonment liability. The producing-now figure of 952 exceeds the active count of 913 — an anomaly worth scrutinizing, as it may reflect reporting timing differences or classification of temporarily shut-in wells within the producing tally rather than a clean real-time production signal. Work types on record span the full development cycle: drilling rigs, frac crews, frac sand, new-pad dirt and construction, and water logistics and trucking.
Three orders were signed in the 90 days preceding the dossier date, all in Dunn County. Order 36008 (Hearing Order, Lost Bridge Field, signed 2026-09-21) is the most recent. Order 36009 (Commingling Authorization, Haystack Butte, signed 2026-08-31) reflects operational integration activity in a pool where XTO also has a pending spacing case. Order 35872 (Field Rules Amendment — Spacing Unit Reconfiguration, Lost Bridge-Bakken Pool, signed 2026-07-17) indicates XTO is actively reshaping unit configurations in Dunn County, not merely maintaining legacy positions.
Across the upcoming docket, 18 wells are requested in pending cases, with a momentum ramp score of 13.5 and an average case probability of 0.582. The operator's historical win rate is 60%. Only 1 of the 3 confirmed pending cases clears the high-probability threshold. The docket's well-count is heavily skewed by case 33188's 15-well request, which carries a 23.4% progression probability — well below both the operator's historical win rate and the docket average. The two October cases together request 3 wells at meaningfully higher confidence levels (93.9% and 57.2% respectively), making them the more actionable near-term signals for service and supply planning.